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Dan Gardner:
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway - neues Buch
2008, ISBN: 9780771035135
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have o… Mehr…
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near. Dan Gardner, Books, Health and Well Being, Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway Books>Health and Well Being, McClelland & Stewart<
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Future Babble by Dan Gardner Paperback | Indigo Chapters - neues Buch
2008, ISBN: 9780771035135
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the faste… Mehr…
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near. | Future Babble by Dan Gardner Paperback | Indigo Chapters Books > Social Science > Futurology P10102, Dan Gardner<
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Dan Gardner:
Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway by Dan Gardner - gebrauchtes Buch
2008, ISBN: 9780771035135
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the faste… Mehr…
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future -- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate -- and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near. "From the Hardcover edition." Media >, [PU: McClelland and Stewart]<
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Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway - neues Buch
2008, ISBN: 9780771035135
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have o… Mehr…
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near. Books List_Books, [PU: McClelland and Stewart]<
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Gardner, Dan:
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway - Taschenbuch
2011, ISBN: 9780771035135
Emblem Editions, Taschenbuch, Auflage: Reprint, 320 Seiten, Publiziert: 2011-09-27T00:00:01Z, Produktgruppe: Buch, 0.66 kg, Sozialwissenschaft, Kategorien, Bücher, Buchgeschichte, Bücher … Mehr…
Emblem Editions, Taschenbuch, Auflage: Reprint, 320 Seiten, Publiziert: 2011-09-27T00:00:01Z, Produktgruppe: Buch, 0.66 kg, Sozialwissenschaft, Kategorien, Bücher, Buchgeschichte, Bücher & Interpretationen, Literaturgeschichte & -kritik, Literatur & Fiktion, Kognitionspsychologie, Psychologie, Fachbücher, Sozialgeschichte, Geschichte nach Themen, Politik & Geschichte, Psychologie & Hilfe, Ratgeber, Emblem Editions, 2011<
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